Expectations and thirty wine trends for 2020 and 2021

Expectations and thirty wine trends for 2020 and 2021

More wines from traditional countries like France, Spain and Italy, drinking less but of better quality and in the hospitality sector a wide choice by the glass. Those are some of the results of a survey conducted by wine and food communications agency Pitch PR. Towards the end of the lockdown, all professional wine importers and major retailers were asked to share their expectations about the wine market in the Netherlands over the next 18 months.

The survey asked about expectations and trends in sales of wines from certain countries and regions, expected consumer behaviour and the wine policy of the on-trade after the past months lockdown. Sixty-five professional wine buyers participated in the survey, including companies such as Henri Bloem, Vinites, Sligro, Hema, Walraven Sax, Okhuysen, Pallas Wines, De Monnik Dranken, Wijnimport Bart, Fourcroy, Les Genereux, Verbunt Verlinden and many others. Besides its own research, it also looked at some (inter)national articles on the current wine industry in Wineintelligence.com, Journal of Wine Economics, Euawe.com, Robertparker.com, Horeca Misset and Entree Magazine, among others.

A key conclusion is that the wine industry expects consumers to consume more wine at home and order less wine in on-trade outlets. Consumers have discovered the online wine shop and this sales channel is growing rapidly. Whereas in the supermarket the wines up to €6.00 offer the most opportunities, online more often a more expensive bottle is ordered.

Importers expect the share of wines from traditional wine countries like France, Italy and Spain to grow again, especially for wines up to €6.00. A good example of this is Pays d'Oc IGP, the wine region where 58 grape varieties are allowed that are often recognisable on the label. In the Netherlands, 33% of French wine imports is a Pays d'Oc IGP wine.

Supply in the on-trade is changing, according to the industry. Wine lists will become more compact, fewer bottles in stock and consumers will order more often by the glass. The standard price margin of factor 5 will gradually be replaced by a fixed mark-up on all bottles. This will also make more luxurious wines affordable. The wine sector has been hit hard by the loss of the on-trade during the lockdown, and sales are not expected to return to normal levels until the second quarter of 2021.

Fifteen wine trends for supermarkets and wine shops

  • Wines from France, Spain and Italy most in demand
  • Consumers will drink less wine but better
  • Sharp price drops quality wines expected, recovery in 2021
  • Since 2014 21% price increase average bottle, from €4.53 to €5.49
  • Crisis has mainly negative short-term impact on luxury wines over €10.00
  • More demand for Cava and Prosecco
  • Good quality rosé wines all year round
  • Other, lesser-known grape varieties
  • Demand for organic and sustainable continues to grow
  • Growth in online purchases of quality wines
  • (Re)discovering the wine shop or liquor store, especially for weekends
  • Chilled red wines
  • Wines in magnums (contents of two bottles)
  • Demand for low-alcohol and non-alcoholic wines increases (especially by millennials)
  • Consumers are loyal to wine brands

Fifteen wine trends for the on-trade

  • More demand for wines from France, Italy, Spain
  • More Cava and Prosecco, less Champagne
  • More wine offerings "by the glass
  • Less extensive wine lists
  • Wine sales through restaurants' own webshops, combined with takeaway or delivery
  • Online training courses, webinars and tastings
  • Restaurant visitor is open to lesser-known grape varieties
  • More choice desired in the entry-level segment between €20 and €35 per bottle
  • Organic and sustainable
  • More luxurious wines with a fixed storage price, not a factor of 4 or 5
  • Wines from the Netherlands
  • More diversity and affordable discoveries
  • Magnums, especially for white, rosé and bubbles
  • Low-alcohol or alcohol-free wine
  • Bag in Box wines

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